Conflict with Iran imminent

Conflict with Iran imminent

By Neal AbuNab:


"Iran is a threat to the free world." "Iran is terrorism central." "Iran’s nuclear program represents the most pressing challenge for U.S. foreign policy. Even more pressing than the occupation of Iraq." We hear these statements so frequently these days from Bush regime officials, especially Secretary of State Condy Rice. They are selling a new war.

Whom did Iran threaten in the free world? Did it threaten Europe or the U.S. or Canada? Iran’s President Ahmadinejad has been leveling all of his threats at Israel. And Israel is hardly representative of the free world. Israel represents the world of slavery. Israel represents the world of oppression, apartheid, racism, unilateralism, militarism, genocide, illegal expansionism, massive deportations, ethnic cleansing, and a 60-year old occupation of a people. Israel represents the exact opposite of what the free world offers to humanity.

Israel makes threats to every Arab country and Muslim nation as a matter of self-righteousness. Its threats are "legitimate" while Iran’s threats are not! I think any country that makes as many threats as Israel does can only expect some threats in return. Is it a bad thing to threaten Israel? Hizbullah has been able to establish relative security in Lebanon through its threats to Israel. Israel does not yield to the voice of reason or diplomacy. It can only be deterred from war by having an enemy capable of tough retaliation.

Is Israel beyond reproach? Well, it seems like no one dares to criticize Israel in America. Not the U.S. Congress, not the Senate, not the President and not even the media. The entire crisis with Iran is about Israel. The nuclear issue can be resolved. Similar issues were resolved before with Pakistan and India. But the neocons make the issue with Iran seem complicated because the Zionist lobby is pushing America to eliminate the greatest threat to Israel.

If the security of Israel is the security of America, I see no way out of a military confrontation with Iran. But the window of opportunity for such a U.S.-led military strike against Iran is closing fast. Iran is moving ahead in its uranium enrichment program at lightning speed adding new centrifuges every day. At this rate it will have over a thousand centrifuges in less than a year. In 10 years time, it will be capable of enriching weapons-grade uranium.

The US does not want Iran to enrich uranium on its own soil. It doesn’t trust Iran to use this know-how in the future for just peaceful electric generation programs. It sponsored a resolution in the U.N. Security Council this week which slaps sanctions against Iran, leading eventually to authorizing military action. But China and Russia opposed the resolution and it failed. They are preparing a new package of "incentives" and sanctions if it doesn’t comply. They will provide Iran with uranium enriched in another country, most likely Russia, to operate the power plants. But Iran will never stand for that.

Ahmadinejad sent President Bush an 18-page letter last week which was long on theology and short on specifics. It is the first communication of its kind since 1979. Iran wants to open up direct dialogue with the US. The idea of the letter was intended more for Muslim audiences around the globe. It invoked romantic imagery of the Prophet Muhammad and of his letters to the great emperors of his day calling them to Islam. Ahmadinejad has ambitions of embodying the character of "Ameer Al Momineen," - the Leader of the Faithful on earth. The letter also puts domestic pressure on Bush to yield to the calls of people like Madeleine Albright and Senator John McCain who are calling for direct talks.

Ahmadinejad’s style of diplomacy has given every indication of his wild ambition. In the past few months he’s been traveling extensively in Muslim countries signing comprehensive economic deals that mirror America’s World Trade Organization efforts. Iran has signed agreements with Syria, Turkey, Sudan, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Pakistan, and Indonesia.

He has championed the idea of a Muslim G8 where the largest Muslim nations can form an economic club responsive to open trade. The leaders of the new economic club met this weekend in Bali representing almost one billion people. The Muslim G8 consists of Indonesia, Malaysia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Egypt and Nigeria.

The Iranian regime is under tremendous internal economic pressure and it has to provide job opportunities for 750,000 new entrants into its work force every year. It has adopted pre-emptive diplomacy so that if economic sanctions are slapped, they can never work. In fact, Iranian diplomacy has outrun its American counterpart. Condy Rice can not keep up with Iran’s feverish diplomacy that is adding more partners to its coalition every week.

Iran aspires to be a regional superpower and wants to have a dialogue of equals with the United States. Bush will never allow that to happen under his watch. So, he is installing another "Yes" man to lead the CIA. Somebody like George Tenent, who will manipulate and "cherry-pick" if not outright fabricate evidence to be presented to a receptive Congress. He has nominated General Michael Hayden who led the domestic spying program at the NSA. Donald Rumsfeld has strongly endorsed the nomination and that should give us a strong hint that war plans are in place.

The window of opportunity to strike is only open, in my estimate, till March 2007. After that, surgical air strikes as war plans suggest, would risk causing an environmental catastrophe in Asia. The question that remains is one of timing; to strike before the elections or wait till November and risk losing the Republican majority.

Israel’s Prime Minister Olmert declared recently that Israel’s final borders will be determined before Bush is out of office. He is in a hurry to lock in all the gains achieved by the alliance with Bush. The US-Israel relationship may never be as certain as it is today.

If we study the history of Iran, when was the last time Iran attacked another nation? It was in 1736 when Nadir Shah became ruler. He converted his people from Sunni to Shia and embarked on a conquest that extended his reign as far as New Delhi in India. Today, Iran does not represent a threat to the free world and it has even stopped exporting its brand of Islam.

Iranian officials have warned that if attacked they will strike American targets everywhere. They stated that they had signed up 55,000 volunteer martyrs ready to blow themselves up in attacks against the enemy. This type of self-defense is sure to reach American soil as well as American interests all over the globe.

I think the Bush-Cheney bet discounts this type of reaction and makes the assumption that the conflict will stay confined to the Iran-Iraq area. But what if they are wrong, as they were in Iraq? Then, what they are about to do would expand the explosive bloody chaos in Iraq to engulf the rest of the world, all in the name of the "War on Terror."

Neal AbuNab can be reached at nealabunab@todaylink.com, or 313-506-4409
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"May God have mercy upon my enemies, because I won't." -General George S. Patton

Psalm 82-8: Arise, O God, judge the earth, for You inherit all the nations.