Israeli scientists warn of large earthquake in north

Hospitals told to restock essential equipment, test satellite phones
after hundreds of minor shocks

JERUSALEM -- In biblical times, earthquakes represented the fire and
brimstone that swallowed Sodom and Gomorrah and, with apologies to
Joshua, probably brought down the walls of Jericho.

Now, thousands of years later, scientists and government officials are
warning hospitals and emergency services in northern Israel to prepare
themselves for the next big one.

A warning has gone out from Israel's Ministry of Health for hospitals
to restock essential equipment and test satellite phones in the wake
of hundreds of minor earthquakes centred in southern Lebanon in the
past three months.

"The probability of an earthquake of a magnitude of up to 6 on the
Richter scale, originating in Lebanon and being felt in Israel has
increased," Health Ministry director-general Avi Yisraeli said in the
letter.


Israel and the West Bank sit on the Dead Sea Transform rift, where the
African and Arabian tectonic plates join and which is active almost
daily, though most of the earthquakes are imperceptible.

Scientists say there is often little way to tell for certain whether
an increase in small quakes is a warning of a larger tremor, but
acknowledge this recent activity is unusual and say it does increase
the likelihood of a strong quake.

"It's like when you come to a street corner and see a red light. You
can cross it and maybe you won't get hit by a car. But it's a
warning," said Shmuel Marco, a geologist with Tel Aviv University.

A sizable earthquake, between magnitude 6 and 7, seems to hit the
region once every century; the last big one, of magnitude 6.2, struck
in 1927, killing 285 people and injuring nearly 1,000.

The smallest fraction of increase in magnitude would increase the
damage exponentially, particularly in areas that are heavily
populated. Israel's central plain and the Jordan Valley, which runs
from the Sea of Galilee - known here as Lake Kinneret - through the
West Bank to the Dead Sea are also at high risk for a strong quake.

"Strong earthquakes have happened in the past and they will happen
again, we are very sure about that," said Avi Shapira, who chairs
Israel's national committee for earthquake preparedness. "From my
perspective, it is a serious threat and we have to get prepared for it."

A series of small earthquakes, magnitude 4 to 4.3, centred around the
Dead Sea last fall stirred Israel's Infrastructure Minister, Binyamin
Ben Eliezer, to seek five billion shekels (more than $1.5-billion)
over the next two decades to reinforce buildings across the country.

Similar warnings to prepare are now also going out in southern
Lebanon, where the country's National Scientific Research Centre has
recorded 800 earthquakes, ranging from 2.3 to 5.1, since Feb. 12.

In Israel and the West Bank, an earthquake raises the spectre of
damage to major archeological sites - from the ancient
Jewish-mysticism centre of Safed in the north to Jerusalem's Old City,
built on an unstable foundation of thousands of years worth of ruins.
Many of the area's oldest and most historic buildings, dating to the
Ottoman Empire and before, would be at risk of collapse.

And while modern building codes have been in place since 1975, they
are not always followed, leaving some newer buildings at risk
alongside the shabby low-rise apartment buildings erected in the 1950s
and 1960s and thousands of older homes in Palestinian towns across the
West Bank.

"If there is an earthquake of that size we are going to see casualties
and lots of damage," said Rami Hofstetter, director of the seismology
division at the Geophysical Institute of Israel, which monitors
earthquakes.

Scientists and archaeologists have been working for years to build a
historical timeline of major earthquakes to try to predict the next
one, using ancient documents and even religious texts alongside
archeological excavations and modern seismic equipment. The data, they
say, guarantee a major earthquake some time in the next century, but
the details will remain a mystery until it strikes.

"We know in the next 100 years there will be a major one. But the
circumstances are too complicated for us to be able to tell exactly
where or when," Prof. Marco said.

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