Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal lead in exit polls

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/04/22/wfra322.xml

Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal lead in exit polls

By Henry Samuel in Paris
Last Updated: 5:55pm BST 22/04/2007

Nicolas Sarkozy casts his vote with family members
However, the early exit polls cited by Belgian media suggested that the gap between the Right-wing candidate Nicolas Sarkozy and his Socialist rival Ségolène Royal could be closer than recent polls had predicted.

An Ipsos poll gave Mr Sarkozy a clear lead of 30 to Miss Royal’s 23. However, a second Sofres poll put the two on level pegging at 26. A third from CSA put Mr Sarkozy on from 26-30 per cent with Miss Royal on 23 to 27 per cent.

While the final running order was still unclear, there was little doubt that the two other top contenders, François Bayrou, the centrist leader of the UDF party, and far-Right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen, were no longer in contention. A CSA poll gave Mr Bayrou from 16-20 per cent and Mr Le Pen from 11-16 per cent.

At a projected 87 per cent, voter turnout was the highest in the history of the Fifth French republic, smashing the previous record of 84 per cent in 1965 for the election of Charles de Gaulle.



The sky high figure reflected France’s renewed passion for politics after a gripping campaign to usher in a new generation of political leaders at a time when France is wracked with doubts over its future.

It also appeared to be the result of publicity campaigns telling people to vote. The result heralds the promise of a true showdown between an uninhibited Right, offering relatively liberal reforms, and an emphasis on work and meritocracy, and a Left offering a real change in leadership style while seeking to preserve at all costs the generous “French social model.”

Although the two candidates had been favourites to go through, the record levels of floating voters - around a third - and contradictory recent polls had led to frenzied speculation on a surprise outcome to rival 2002, when far-Right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen confounded predictions to reach round two.

Mr Sarkozy had been out in front in the polls for months, but had lost ground in recent weeks amid a concerted campaign among his rivals to portray him as a divisive, temperamental figure with a dangerously Napoleonic authoritarian streak.

His score appeared to vindicate his strategy to woo the far-Right on issues such as immigration, national identity and security.

However the real winner last night was Miss Royal, whose score will be a huge relief for the candidate who could yet become France’s first woman president: at one stage she was on level-pegging with the surprise third man of the campaign, centrist Mr Bayrou. T

he left-wing electorate evidently decided to forgive Miss Royal’s regular gaffes that sparked claims she lacked presidential stature.

Importantly, a significant number of moderate left-wingers initially tempted by Mr Bayrou apparently chose to latch on to her occasional nods to Blairism while overlooking her lurches towards old-style Socialism, including high state spending and regular attacks against banks and big business.

Mr Bayrou, meanwhile, after his spectacular rise into third place in the polls on an anti-political establishment ticket, clearly failed to convince the French that his dream of a Left-Right coalition government was ultimately feasible.

However, his strong showing means that he is now the king or queen maker in the second round run-off. Neither candidate can win without claiming some of his electorate, and although historically closer to the Right, he has been courting the social democrat vote, even suggesting he might nominate a Socialist prime minister.

Mr Le Pen’s predictions that he would better his 2002 first round bombshell proved optimistic. This is likely to be last presidential run in his bid to impose zero immigration, to install “national preference” and the death penalty.

High higher voter turnout and tactical voting for Miss Royal by left-wingers who opted for minor candidates last time scuppered his chances.

However, his relatively high score vindicated the tactics of his daughter and campaign strategist, Marine. Of the remaining eight candidates, only Olivier Besencenot, a communist revolutionary postman, was the only contender with a chance of breaking the five per cent barrier.
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